Interest rates — July 2026

Gold: Reduced Fed hike bets support prices - Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes that gold briefly traded above USD 4,100 after the Fed meeting as markets pared back expectations of further rate hikes. Fed funds futures nevertheless continue to imply additional tightening, while persistent inflation is keeping those expectations...

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Australian Dollar holds firm despite weak Chinese data, fading RBA rate hike bets

AUD/USD trades around 0.7030 at the time of writing on Friday, little changed on the day after Thursday's strong...

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JUST IN: 🇺🇸 After yesterday’s FOMC meeting, the chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year have fallen to just 11%. That leaves an 89% probability rates will remain steady.

PulsarTrades

Additionally - Yesterday, we had FOMC Meeting and Interest Rate data!

Interest Rate is unchanged 🚩🤝

SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (7/29/2026):

1. Fed leaves rates unchanged for the 5th straight meeting

2. Fed votes 9-3 to hold benchmark rate in 3.50%-3.75% zone

3. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissent in favor of rate hike

4. Fed says economic activity is expanding at a "solid pace" despite uncertainty

5. Fed says job gains have "kept pace with the workforce"

6. Fed says it remains committed to its 2% inflation goal

The longest Fed pause since the 2008 cycle continues.

🎙 کالبدشکافی سخنرانی کوین وارش (Kevin Warsh) فدرال رزرو (Federal Reserve) به ریاست کوین وارش (Kevin Warsh) نرخ بهره وجوه فدرال (Federal Funds Rate) را در محدوده 3.50% تا 3.75% ثابت نگه داشت، اما ظهور 3 رای مخالف (Dissent) به نفع افزایش نرخ و حذف کامل راهنمای پیشرو (Forward Guidance)، موضعی کاملاً انقباضی (Hawkish Hold) برای مهار تورم (Inflation) را تایید کرد.

🏛 محورهای اصلی

• تثبیت نرخ بهره و عدم اجماع در کمیته (FOMC Vote & Rate Decision): کمیته بازار باز فدرال (Federal Open Market Committee - FOMC) تصمیم گرفت نرخ بهره وجوه فدرال (Federal Funds Rate) را در محدوده 3.50% تا 3.75% دست‌نخورده باقی بگذارد. این تصمیم با رای 9 موافق در برابر 3 مخالف به تصویب رسید؛ سه عضو کمیته (Hammack، Kashkari و Logan) خواهان افزایش 25 نقطه پایه‌ای (25 bps) نرخ بهره بودند. کوین وارش (Kevin Warsh) این شکاف در آرا را «یک بحث خانوادگی سازنده (Good Family Fight)» توصیف کرد که نشانه پویایی تحلیل‌ها در بانک مرکزی است.

• تعهد قاطع به کنترل تورم و چالش شوک‌های عرضه (Inflation Target & Energy Supply Shocks): وارش اشاره کرد که نرخ تورم (Inflation) بیش از 5 سال است که بالاتر از هدف 2% باقی مانده و مانند یک مالیات غیرمنصفانه بر معیشت خانوارها فشار می‌آورد. وی تاکید کرد که شوک‌های عرضه (Supply Shocks) ناشی از تنش‌های خاورمیانه و نوسانات قیمت انرژی، فشارهای تورمی را تشدید کرده‌اند و کمیته هیچ‌گونه اغماضی در برابر تورم مداوم نخواهد داشت.

• رشد بهره‌وری و سرمایه‌گذاری در هوش مصنوعی (Productivity Growth & AI Investment): رئیس فدرال رزرو به تاب‌آوری اقتصاد آمریکا و رشد قوی تولید ناخالص داخلی (Gross Domestic Product - GDP) اشاره نمود. وی مخارج سرمایه‌ای شتابان در زیرساخت‌های هوش مصنوعی (Artificial Intelligence - AI)، شامل دیتاسنترها و تجهیزات سخت‌افزاری را عامل اصلی تقویت سمت عرضه (Supply Side) و جهش بهره‌وری (Productivity) دانست.

• حذف راهنمای پیشرو و پیشبرد اصلاحات ساختاری (Elimination of Forward Guidance & Task Forces): وارش با تصریح اینکه ارائه راهنمای پیشرو (Forward Guidance) در شرایط نااطمینانی کنونی کارایی ندارد، تاکید کرد که تمامی تصمیمات آتی صرفاً وابسته به داده‌های اقتصادی (Data Dependent) خواهند بود. وی همچنین روند پیشرفت 5 کارگروه ویژه (Task Forces) برای بازنگری در ابزارهای ارتباطی، ترازنامه (Balance Sheet)، داده‌های اقتصادی و چارچوب هدف‌گذاری تورم را تشریح کرد.

📌 سیگنال‌های سیاست پولی و بازار کلان

• اثر بر نرخ بهره و فدرال رزرو (Impact on Interest Rates & Fed Strategy): مخالفت 3 عضو کمیته به نفع انقباض بیشتر، نشان‌دهنده احتمال بالای حداقل یک افزایش نرخ بهره (Rate Hike) در نشست‌های ماه سپتامبر (September) یا پاییز 2026 است. فدرال رزرو تحت رهبری وارش ابزار افزایش نرخ را روی میز نگه داشته و استراتژی انقباض زودهنگام (Front-Loading) را در صورت تداوم تورم انرژی پیگیری خواهد کرد.

• اثر بر دلار و بازارهای مالی (Impact on US Dollar & Financial Markets): لحن شدیداً تهاجمی (Hawkish) و حذف پیش‌بینی‌های نرخ بهره، به صعود شاخص دلار (US Dollar Index - DXY) و افزایش بازده اوراق قرضه خزانه (Treasury Yields) منجر شده است. بازارهای سهام به دلیل چشم‌انداز حفظ نرخ‌های بهره بالا برای مدت طولانی‌تر (Higher for Longer) و نااطمینانی‌های ژئوپلیتیک، روند نزولی و نوسانی اتخاذ کرده‌اند.

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The Federal Reserve kept the interest rate at 3.75%, matching expectations and the previous rate.

Inflation remains above the 2% target, burdening the economy. The decision passed 9-3, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lori Logan dissenting, preferring a 0.25 point hike.

✅ Follow @cryp

⚠️ 20 minutes until the FOMC Interest Rate Decision.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average extends losses to -800 points on the

Chip stocks fall

Rate hike odds rise

President Trump vows to strike Iran.

Today, financial markets are focused on the FED's interest rate decision. However, I would not expect any major surprises. Despite persistent inflation risks linked to tensions in the Middle East and the potential for higher oil prices, there is still insufficient justification for a change in the current monetary policy stance. If inflationary pressures do intensify, they are more likely to eliminate the possibility of a rate cut than increase the likelihood of one.

At the same time, the recent decline in oil prices and the absence of a meaningful acceleration in inflation do not provide a compelling case for a rate hike either. As a result, the most likely outcome is that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged, broadly in line with market expectations. If the decision matches the consensus forecast, it is unlikely to trigger a significant spike in market volatility on its own.

Investors will therefore turn their attention to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. However, Warsh has already indicated that the Fed intends to scale back public guidance and avoid offering detailed signals about its future policy path. That approach reduces the likelihood that today's remarks will provide clear direction on future interest rate decisions or become a catalyst for major market moves.

Some observers have already drawn comparisons between Warsh and former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan, whose carefully worded and often ambiguous remarks nevertheless had the power to move global markets. However, today's financial markets are very different, and the sharp bouts of volatility that once accompanied Fed meetings and press conferences have become far less common.

Unless the Federal Reserve delivers an unexpected policy surprise or Warsh adopts a significantly more hawkish or dovish tone than anticipated, the current market trends are likely to remain intact. The U.S. dollar is expected to retain its moderate strength, equity markets will probably continue to follow their prevailing trends, and precious metals, which remain under pressure, are unlikely to receive a sufficiently strong catalyst for a sustained recovery.

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Today #FOMC Interest Rate Decision ✅

⚔️ Citadel vs Bitcoin: The Fed Rate Decision Showdown

Citadel is positioning for a rate hike at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, while crypto analysts overwhelmingly expect a hold. The divergence is stark — one of the largest macro funds in the world is betting against the consensus view that the Fed will pause.

If the Fed hikes, risk assets like bitcoin could get crushed. If they hold and signal cuts, the rally resumes. Either way, someone’s getting their face ripped off.

🔗 CoinDesk

🗓 Market Watch: Key Events This Week

A big week ahead:

🔸 Fed Interest Rate Decision 🔸 MSFT, META, AAPL & AMZN Earnings 🔸 PCE Inflation Data 🔸 Consumer Sentiment Updates

Macro moves markets.

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🔻 THE ENERGY GRID KNOWS. A CHIEF POWER ENGINEER JUST SENT US HIS RESIGNATION LETTER. READ IT.

"To the Executive Board, Global Power & Transmission. Effective immediately, I resign.

I have spent 24 years in high-voltage engineering. I have managed grid distribution for 12 million people. I am writing this because I cannot carry the weight of what I know for one more day.

In 1998, I attended a closed-door symposium near Zurich. The presentation was titled: 'Zero-Point Resonance and Decentralized Infinite Power Generation.'

The researcher showed us data from a generator tested between 1995 and 1998: — Power output: 500 Kilowatts, expandable infinitely — Fuel required: ZERO (runs on ambient oscillations) — Pollution: ZERO — Scale: Fits in a residential basement

An entire district. Powered for free. Forever. No coal, no oil, no monthly bills, no blackouts.

We saw the live meters. Then we were told:

'This technology is suppressed for national security. Any attempt to replicate or commercialize it will result in immediate termination and imprisonment. You are bound by lifetime classification.'

We went back to our control rooms. We went back to charging working-class families for energy that could have been completely free.

⟁

I went back to Control Room 7. I went back to cutting off power to elderly families who couldn't afford heating bills during sub-zero nights.

I told households: 'Prices are rising due to supply shortages.'

There was no shortage. There was an artificial abundance locked behind a vault door.

Since 1998, I have personally signed off on utility rate hikes affecting millions. Energy scarcity is a manufactured illusion. At least 95% of our economic struggles could have been eliminated decades ago.

Instead, I watched inflation skyrocket. I watched families choose between food and electricity. I watched small businesses collapse under utility debt while profits soared into trillions.

⟁

I am not asking for forgiveness.

I am asking for this letter to reach every human being who has stared at an unaffordable utility bill and wondered why life is so hard. That struggle is a lie.

There IS a power source that runs our homes for free with zero impact. It exists. It works.

Your government knows. Your energy provider knows. They chose control and trillion-dollar profits over your freedom. I chose my career over your freedom.

I will not choose it one more day.

⟁

To the millions I overcharged:

I am sorry I was a coward. I am sorry I chose silence. Obedience kept you in financial chains. My obedience kept the lights off in homes that deserved warmth.

The silence ends today."

— Name withheld. Senior Power Grid Engineer. 24 years.

⟁

♟ He watched the world pay for energy while free power sat in a vault. He stayed silent. He is not silent anymore. Neither are we.

Share this for every family that deserved free warmth instead of manufactured poverty.

@Gesara_QFS

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➡💶➡ Euro support at 1.13370 in focus: two scenarios for this week

EURUSD trades at 1.14200 on Tuesday, but rising oil prices and the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict are boosting safe-haven demand for the dollar. Find out how you can trade euro in our breakdown below 💙

🪙 Key takeaways • Events. The euro slipped toward 1.14000 on Tuesday as Middle East tensions supported oil prices and the U.S. dollar 💲 The U.S. struck Iran for a tenth night, while Yemen's Houthis announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, raising fears of oil supply disruptions. Brent briefly topped $90 a barrel before ending Monday around 1% higher.

• Background. Higher oil prices increase costs and inflation risks in the energy-importing eurozone, potentially weakening economic growth and the euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its deposit rate to 2.25% in June—its first increase since 2023—even as annual inflation slowed from 3.2% to 2.8%. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said further rate hikes remain possible, supporting the dollar and adding pressure on EURUSD.

• Potential outcome. Markets see a 99% chance that the ECB will hold rates on 23 July 📊 Traders will focus on President Christine Lagarde's comments: signals of higher rates could support the euro, while concerns about growth could weaken it. The Fed is also expected to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% on 28 – 29 July, which could affect the dollar and, in turn, the euro.

🪙 Tip for traders

If tensions calm or the dollar softens, the euro could reclaim 1.14700 toward 1.15240. If tensions escalate or the Fed turns more aggressive, the pair could fall toward 1.13370.

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➡🥇➡ Gold under pressure: trading setups above and below $3,970

Gold trades near $4,030 an ounce as tensions in the Middle East escalate. Immediate resistance holds at $4,200, while support sits at $3,970. Explore the bullish and bearish scenarios below 💙

🪙 Key takeaways • Events. Gold rose more than 1% on Tuesday after June's U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report came in softer than forecast 🥇 This release reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. Some of gold's gains reversed after the U.S. launched fresh strikes on Iran and reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz.

• Background. Cooling inflation raises the odds of a softer Federal Reserve (Fed) policy stance, which typically supports gold as a safe-haven asset. Rising oil prices from the Iran conflict add to inflation risk and keep demand for gold high. In June, the Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75%, with nine of eighteen committee members now favouring a hike by year-end.

• Potential outcome. Traders are watching today's initial jobless claims (forecast: 216,000) and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (forecast: 12.7), both due at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Stronger-than-expected data could reinforce a more aggressive, rate-hike-leaning stance and weigh on gold 📊 Softer figures could revive rate-cut hopes and support the metal.

🪙 Tip for traders

Monitor the bullish scenario if gold holds above $3,970 and breaks through $4,200, which could extend the move toward $4,370, especially on soft data today. The bearish scenario gains traction on a confirmed break below $4,000, which could open the way to $3,970 if today's releases beat forecasts.

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➡💶➡ Euro holds firm as weaker dollar supports upside potential. What's next?

EURUSD is trading near 1.1440–1.1442, staying above key support at 1.14270. Find out how you can trade the euro in our breakdown below 💙

🪙 Key takeaways • Events. The pair remained supported as the Dollar Index slipped 0.15% to 100.87. Expectations for a July Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike fell to 26.2% from 31% a day earlier, reducing near-term demand for the dollar 💲

• Background. The euro also benefited from signs that the European Central Bank (ECB) may keep policy tighter for longer 💶 ECB projections suggested inflation could stay above target into next year, even after further rate increases. At the same time, U.S. jobless claims fell to 215,000, showing continued strength in the labour market. Fed minutes also revealed that some officials had considered an immediate rate rise, leaving the policy outlook uncertainю

• Possible outcome. Attention now turns to further developments in U.S.–Iran talks, shifts in Fed rate expectations, and upcoming U.S. economic data. Any change in geopolitical risk or the interest-rate outlook could quickly affect demand for the dollar and shape the next move in EURUSD.

🪙 Tip for traders

The euro remains supported above 1.14270. A move above 1.1450 could potentially open the buy scenario targeting 1.15000. On the other hand, a drop below 1.14270 could shift focus to 1.1400 and 1.13370, especially if geopolitical risks or tighter Fed expectations strengthen the dollar.

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